Joe Hockey, Future PM

Cruising the back aisles of Bunnings Artarmon on Saturday, Audrey and Drew in tow (sort of), I ran into one of Australia's future PM's, Joe Hockey. Labelled "Sloppy Joe" by the once hopeless, and now apparently formidable, Labour front bench, Joe was indeed looking like any normal Dad on a Saturday morning...joggers, shorts and... wait for it... a sloppy joe. I don't think he intended the visual pun.

I had a quick chat with Joe, asking him how his walk up Kili was. "Tiring" he said. Frankly, it did look as though he'd literally just flown in. I thought later about how hard these pollies work. All the long hours without decent breaks. And the constant need to be 'mentally up', when the media lurk at any turn, would wear any of us down.

Being a bit of a political buff, I'll henceforth unweild my views on Joe's future. I know he reads my blog avidly ;) so I hope to do his future the justice it deserves.

There is nothing to be gained by Hockey taking on the liberal leadership for at least 3 more years. From a family perspective, seeing him saunter around Bunnings with his young child reminded me that there is an immeasurable toll politicians pay by taking on the top job. Hockey's kids need him around as much as possible in these formative young years and I think he should put their early child development ahead of political ambition in the short to medium term.

Regardless of whether that first point is valid or not, Hockey can only lose and not gain, from being the Leader of the Opposition for at least one more electoral term. He would be foolish to take on the leadership now even if it was thrust on him by Turnbull retiring from the post or from politics altogether (unlikely, given Turnbull's belief that one day being PM is his destiny). To do so would leave him exposed to exactly the same cyclical issues that Turnbull is facing and Nelson faced. Rudd's approval rating (I dare not say 'popularity', as nobody really likes him) is unlikely to drop much in the next couple of years. He's dodged a bullet with the economy, has no looming wars to get him into trouble, and is well tapped into the mindset of the average Australian (i.e.tapped in via polls) evidenced by his recent (apparently unsolicited) admission that he whacked his kids. (What a crock of a news story). Did Rudd wake up one morning, realise it was a slow news day and decide this would be an interesting revelation for a nation starved of Rudd-ness because of his recent lay-up on the sick bed??

Anyway I digress. Back to Joe. He's so young to be so prominent and there's little chance he won't be PM one day. It's really a case of biding his time. Unfortunately, so many pollies just don't seem able to do this (Costello aside). I reckon he needs to back himself to one day be the right guy, for the right time. Now is simply not the right time. The Libs would be better off leaving Turnbull to recover in the polls somewhat and see how he does in an election campaign. He won't win, but I think he'll do a damn good job, through his energy and gift of the gab. If there is anyone who can go toe to toe with Rudd in the debates, and who can draw viewers to the screen each night during the election it will be Turnbull. Turnbull suffers from coming across a bit like a pratt at times but he is charismatic.  (He needs to get out to Bunnings more). I totally disagree with this view going around Canberra that the email affair has made Turnbull's leadership terminal. That is plain BS. The Australian public forget easily, and by 2010 we'll be thinking about a whole new range of issues, such as the confusion in our lives from the new ETS.

Joe should continue to publicly, privately, and strongly back Turnbull and genuinely work the benches for united support of Turnbull. This will allow Turnbull to stay in the role past the next, lost, election, and position Hockey to take up the role in about 3 years time. Ideally, actually, he would be better off waiting 6 years, as the Coalition cannot win the next two elections. Turnbull can do 3 of those years and two others (Abbott deserves a go) can do the remainder. Hockey can then 'do a Rudd' and finally assume his position at the time when the cycle has turned against the current PM. All competence aside, Australians will tire of Rudd (thankfully), as they have all long-serving leaders before.  But its going to take some time Joe...